2018
Larson, S. M., Pegion, K. V., & Kirtman, B. P. (2018). The South Pacific Meridional Mode as a Thermally Driven Source of ENSO Amplitude Modulation and Uncertainty. Journal of Climate, 31(13), 5127-5145.
Lopez, H., West, R., Dong, S., Goni, G., Kirtman, B., Lee, S. K., & Atlas, R. (2018). Early emergence of anthropogenically forced heat waves in the western United States and Great Lakes. Nature Climate Change, 1.
Bell, R., & Kirtman, B. (2018). Seasonal forecasting of winds, waves and currents in the North Pacific. Journal of Operational Oceanography, 1-16.
Larson, S. M., Vimont, D. J., Clement, A. C., & Kirtman, B. P. (2018). How Momentum Coupling Affects SST Variance and Large-Scale Pacific Climate Variability in CESM. Journal of Climate, (2018).
Skubel, R. A., Kirtman, B. P., Fallows, C., & Hammerschlag, N. (2018). Patterns of long-term climate variability and predation rates by a marine apex predator, the white shark Carcharodon carcharias. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 587, 129-139.
He, J., Kirtman, B., Soden, B. J., Vecchi, G. A., Zhang, H., & Winton, M. (2018). Impact of ocean eddy resolution on the sensitivity of precipitation to CO2 increase. Geophysical Research Letters.
2017
Kirtman, B. P., Perlin, N., & Siqueira, L. (2017). Ocean eddies and climate predictability. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 27(12), 126902.
Larson, S. M., & Kirtman, B. P. (2017). Linking preconditioning to extreme ENSO events and reduced ensemble spread. Climate Dynamics, 1-17.
Infanti, J. M., & Kirtman, B. P. (2017). CGCM and AGCM Seasonal Climate Predictions–A Study in CCSM4. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.
Larson, S. M., & Kirtman, B. P. (2017). Drivers of coupled model ENSO error dynamics and the spring predictability barrier. Climate Dynamics, 48(11-12), 3631-3644.
Feng, X., Huang, B., Kirtman, B. P., Kinter, J. L., & Chiu, L. S. (2017). A multi-model analysis of the resolution influence on precipitation climatology in the Gulf Stream region. Climate Dynamics, 48(5-6), 1685-1704.
Burgman, R. J., Kirtman, B. P., Clement, A. C., & Vazquez, H. (2017). Model evidence for low‐level cloud feedback driving persistent changes in atmospheric circulation and regional hydroclimate. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(1), 428-437.
Larson, S. M., Kirtman, B. P., & Vimont, D. J. (2017). A Framework to Decompose Wind-driven Biases in Climate Models Applied to CCSM/CESM in the Eastern Pacific. Journal of Climate, (2017).
2016
Cheng, Y., D. Putrasahan, L. Beal, and B. P. Kirtman (2016), Quantifying Agulhas Leakage in a high-resolution climate model. J. Climate.
Jung, E., and B. P. Kirtman (2016), Can we predict seasonal changes in high impact weather in the United States?. Environmental Research Letters, 11(7), 074018.
Wdowinski, S, R. Bray, B. P. Kirtman, and Z. Wu (2016), Increasing flooding hazard in coastal communities due to rising sea level: Case study of Miami Beach, Florida. Ocean and Coastal Management, 126, 1-8. Boer, G. J., Smith, D. M., Cassou, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Danabasoglu, G., B. P. Kirtman, ... & Mueller, W. A. (2016). The Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(10), 3751.Infanti, J. M., and B. P. Kirtman (2016). North American rainfall and temperature prediction response to the diversity of ENSO. Climate Dynamics, 46 (9-10), 3007-3023.Infanti, J. M., & B. P. Kirtman (2016). Prediction and predictability of land and atmosphere initialized CCSM4 climate forecasts over North America. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(21).Siqueira, L., and B. P. Kirtman (2016), Atlantic Near-Term Climate Predictability and the Role of a Resolved Gulf Stream. Geophys. Res. Lettr., 43 (8), 3964-3972.
Lopez, H., and B. P. Kirtman (2016), Investigating the seasonal predictability of significant wave height in the West Pacific and Indian Oceans, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL068653.
Shukla, S., J. Roberts, A. Hoell, C. C. Funk, F. Robertson, and B. P. Kirtman (2016), Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa. Climate Dynamics, 1-17. Larson, S. M., and B. P. Kirtman (2016), Drivers of Coupled Model ENSO Error Dynamics and the Spring Predictability Barrier. Climate Dynamics, 1-14. Feng, X., B. Huang, B. P. Kirtman, J. L. Kinter III, and L. S. Chiu (2016), A multi-model analysis of the resolution influence on precipitation climatology in the Gulf Stream region. Climate Dynamics, 1-20.
2015
Song, Z, S.-K. Lee, C. Wang, B. P. Kirtman, F. Qiao (2015), Contributions of the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components to the tropical Atlantic SST bias in CESM1. Ocean Modeling, 96, 280-290.
Larson, S. M., and B. P. Kirtman (2015), An Alternate Approach to Ensemble ENSO Forecast Spread: Application to the 2014 Forecast. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42(21), 9411-9415. doi:10.1002/2015GL066173. [pdf]
Putrasahan, D., B. P; Kirtman, and L. M. Beal (2015), Modulation of SST interannual variability in Agulhas leakage region associated with ENSO. J. Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0172.1.
Infanti, J. M., and B. P. Kirtman (2015), North American rainfall and temperature prediction response to the diversity of ENSO. Climate Dynamics, 1-17.
Putrasahan, D. A., L. M. Beal, B. P. Kirtman, and Y. Cheng (2015), A new Eulerian method to estimate “spicy” Agulhas leakage in climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4532–4539. doi: 10.1002/2015GL064482.
Larson, S. M., and B. P. Kirtman, 2015: Revisiting ENSO Coupled Instability Theory and SST Error Growth in a Fully Coupled Model. J. Climate, 28, 4724–4742. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00731.1. [pdf]
Chen, G., B. P. Kirtman, and M. Iskandarani (2014), December. An Efficient Perturbed Parameter Scheme in the Lorenz System for Quantifying Model Uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 2552–2562. doi: 10.1002/qj.2541.
Colbert, A. J., B. J. Soden, and B. P. Kirtman (2015), The Impact of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks. J. Climate, 28, 1806–1823. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00100.1.
2014
Siqueira, L., and B. Kirtman (2014). Nonlinear dynamics approach to the predictability of the Cane–Zebiak coupled ocean–atmosphere model, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 155-163,doi:10.5194/npg-21-155-2014.
Cornuelle, B., J. Hansen, B. Kirtman, S. Sandgathe, and S. Warren (2014), Issues and Challenges with Using Ensemble-Based Prediction to Probe the Weather–Climate Interface. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, ES213–ES215. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00235.1.
Capotondi, A., A. T. Wittenberg., M. Newman, E. Di Lorenzo, J. Y. Yu, P. Braconnot, J. Cole, B. Dewitte, B. Giese, E. Guilyardi, F. F. Jin, K. Karnauskas, B. Kirtman, T. Lee, N. Schneider, Y. Xue, and S.-W. Yeh (2014), Understanding ENSO diversity. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 96, 921–938. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00117.1. [pdf]
Lopez, H. and B. P. Kirtman (2014), WWBs, ENSO predictability, the spring barrier and extreme events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 119(17), pp.10-114.
Jo, H.-S., S.-W. Yeh, and B. P. Kirtman (2014), Role of the western tropical Pacific in the North Pacific regime shift in the winter of 1998/1999, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 119,6161–6170, doi:10.1002/2013JC009527.
Larson, S. M., and B. P. Kirtman (2014), The Pacific Meridional Mode as an ENSO Precursor and Predictor in the North American Multimodel Ensemble. J. Climate, 27, 7018–7032. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00055.1. [pdf]
Narapusetty, B. and B. P. Kirtman (2014), Sensitivity of near-surface atmospheric circulation to tropical instability waves. Climate dynamics, 42(11-12), pp.3139-3150.
He, J., B. J. Soden, and B. Kirtman (2014), The robustness of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation response to future anthropogenic surface warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2614–2622, doi:10.1002/2014GL059435.
Infanti, J. M., and B. P. Kirtman (2014), Southeastern U.S. Rainfall Prediction in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. J. Hydrometeor, 15, 529–550. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-072.1.
Kirtman, B. P., D. Min, J. M. Infanti, J. L. Kinter, III, D. A. Paolino, Q. Zhang, H. van den Dool, S/ Saha, Malaquias P. Mendez, E. Becker, P. Peng, P. Tripp, J. Huang, D. G. DeWitt, M. K. Tippett, A. G. Barnston, S. Li, A. Rosati, S. D. Schubert, M. Rienecker, M. Suarez, Z. E. Li, J. Marshak, Y.-K. Lim, J. Tribbia, K. Pegion, W. J. Merryfield, B. Denis, and E. F. Wood (2014), The North American Multimodel Ensemble: Phase-1 Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction; Phase-2 toward Developing Intraseasonal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 585–601. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00050.1. [pdf] 
